Escalation Trap

Escalation Trap

Within 10 Days, Shortages Are Already Here

Not just higher prices—now the global economy is running into physical constraint, and most analysis is still behind

Prof Robert Pape's avatar
Prof Robert Pape
Apr 22, 2026
∙ Paid

Ten days ago, I argued that shortages—not just price increases—would begin to hit the global economy. That call is now being confirmed in real time. What matters is what comes next: not just higher prices, but the accelerating absence of critical goods—and the first irreversible steps toward economic contraction.

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