Why Is Trump Escalating When Everyone Says He Won’t?
Escalation Trap Live Briefing: Monday, July 13 • 7:00 p.m. Eastern
For months, one prediction has dominated commentary:
President Trump cannot widen the Iran war.
The midterms are approaching. His political coalition is supposedly tired of foreign wars. Therefore, the United States is expected to avoid major escalation.
So why has the United States struck another 140 targets inside Iran today? On top of 300 earlier this week?
Why are American military deployments moving steadily closer to the Strait of Hormuz?
And why is the Pentagon preparing military options that appear increasingly difficult to reconcile with the conventional wisdom that this war is winding down?
Those are the questions I will answer Monday evening.
My conclusion is that most analysts are looking at the wrong political incentives. The pressures acting on President Trump today are becoming stronger—not weaker—and they are pushing the conflict toward a far more dangerous phase than most observers recognize.
For paid subscribers, I’ll explain:
Why President Trump may now be politically more likely—not less likely—to escalate the war.
How Iran’s new campaign of revenge is changing the strategic logic of the conflict.
Why American military preparations increasingly resemble the early stages of a campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Whether Stage Three of the Escalation Trap is now becoming a realistic possibility rather than a distant scenario.
The three indicators I’m watching that will tell us whether the next major escalation is already underway.
As always, the goal is not simply to summarize events. It is to identify the political and military forces driving escalation before they become obvious—and before markets, governments, and the media fully recognize what is happening.
Following the briefing, I’ll answer your questions live.
Monday, July 13
7:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Paid subscribers automatically receive the Zoom link approximately 15 minutes before the briefing begins.
If you cannot attend live, no problem.
A full recording will be available afterward so you can watch whenever it’s convenient.
I hope you’ll join me.
— Robert Pape
During the oil shock of the Russian war on Ukraine the Biden Administration replenished the SPR at a "good price". As Professor Pape had said, the SPR is really low. So how and when can the SPR be replenished now? Could this be the next price hike in gasoline?