The Next Global Economic Shock From the Iran War Is About to Begin
Not just shortages -- contraction. And most analysis is still missing what breaks next
Two months ago, I warned paid subscribers that the Iran war was not simply creating an oil price spike. It was creating the conditions for shortages, supply disruptions, and eventually economic contraction.
That transition is now beginning.
The critical point is no longer oil prices alone. The world’s emergency buffers — inventories, reserves, subsidies, and logistical workarounds — are beginning to fail simultaneously.
Below the paywall, I explain:
1. The mistake the media and markets have made on estimating the impact of the Iran war and why that’s now going to change
2. What is driving the next global shock and why it is coming sooner than most think
3. How the shock will unfold across different parts of the world at different times and produce cumulative, not isolated impact