Escalation Trap

Escalation Trap

The Impossible Drone Hunt: Why Reopening the Strait of Hormuz Could Be Far Harder Than Most People Realize

The operational analysis behind one of the most important questions raised in my Diary of a CEO interview

Prof Robert Pape's avatar
Prof Robert Pape
Jul 23, 2026
∙ Paid

If you’ve just watched my conversation on Diary of a CEO, welcome.

One question determines whether this war remains regional—or becomes a global economic crisis:

Could the United States actually reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Iran tried to close it?

In the interview, I explained my conclusion.

What we couldn’t show was the full operational analysis behind it.

The maps.

The geography.

The force requirements.

And why finding and destroying thousands of mobile drones and missile launchers spread across Iran’s hundreds of coastline line is not simply difficult—it is one of the hardest military problems any modern navy and air force has ever confronted.

That is what this briefing is about.

This is the analysis behind the conclusion.

Diary of a CEO clip here

Paid subscribers received this analysis before the interview aired. I’m bringing it back because millions of viewers are now asking the same question Steven Bartlett asked: Why do you believe reopening the Strait of Hormuz could prove so difficult?

Everything below explains why.

The first map alone changes how you think about the military challenge.

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