Escalation Trap

Escalation Trap

Resending: What Really Changed Yesterday – The U.S. Lost More Control of Gulf Oil

Iran didn’t just pressure Hormuz. It hit the last bypass—and drove the odds of a good U.S. deal to near zero

Prof Robert Pape's avatar
Prof Robert Pape
May 06, 2026
∙ Paid

Resending since apparently some did not receive this the first time…

Yesterday looked like confusion -- It wasn’t.

Iran didn’t just threaten Hormuz—it hit the system’s last safety valve, the pipeline carrying nearly 2 million barrels a day out of the Gulf.

That single shift changes the logic of the war: the odds of a favorable U.S. deal are now near zero, …

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