Escalation Trap

Escalation Trap

After the Briefing: The 3 Indicators That Will Decide the Next Phase of the Iran War

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Prof Robert Pape's avatar
Prof Robert Pape
Apr 27, 2026
∙ Paid

Yesterday’s live briefing focused on a simple point: this conflict is not being decided by economic pressure alone. It is being shaped by a deeper structural contest over power, alignment, and escalation.

The key question now is not what leaders say.

It is what they do next.

Over the next several weeks, three indicators will tell us whether this war moves …

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